The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Services is projecting high yields for Arkansas soybeans, sorghum, corn and cotton in 2015, according to a news release from the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture Cooperative Extension on Aug. 13.
NASS is projecting Arkansas soybeans to yield 53 bushels per acre, which would be a new state average record and a three-bushel increase from last year. Arkansas growers planted 3.2 million acres of soybeans, down 1.2 percent from the previous year. A 53-bushel-an-acre yield would tie Arkansas with Illinois, second only to Nebraska’s projected 56 bushels per acre.
According to Jeremy Ross, extension soybean agronomist for the UA Division of Agriculture, the soybean forecast is a surprise. His predictions were in the mid to upper 40s.
“We had record yields the last two years, but July and August 2015 were much, much hotter and drier than they were the last two years and that’s affecting yields,” he said in the release. “And a large percentage of acreage in the northern part of the state was planted extremely late — a lot later than the last two years. That’s two strikes against us for high yields.”
NASS is also projecting a record Arkansas’ corn yield at 195 bushels per acre from 470,000 harvested acres, well up from last year’s 187 bushels per acre. The 195 bushels would make Arkansas second only to Washington State’s projected 220 bushels per acre.
Arkansas cotton is projected to yield 1,226 pounds of lint per acre, up 81 pounds from last year and a new record. However, cotton acreage was projected to be down 95,000 acres from last year to 235,000 acres.
“If realized this would be the lowest harvested acres on record in the state,” the NASS report said.
Sorghum yield is projected at a record 105 bushels an acre on 480,000 harvested acres, which would make Arkansas the nation’s second highest state average yield to Illinois’ projected 109 bushels per acre. That compares with last year’s 97 bushels per acre over 165,000 harvested acres.
“Traders were shocked by the bearish numbers and the USDA’s higher yield and production estimates,” said Scott Stiles, extension economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. “Grain bulls were steers by the end of today’s trading.”
November soybeans finished 61½ lower at $9.10. September and December corn futures were both down a shade over 19 cents. September rice lost 8 cents to finish at $11.71. Next July wheat was down 15½ cents settling at $5.12 ½. Cotton was the only winner today with December contract up 288 points to close at 64.70.
Ahead of today’s report, the average trade guess had U.S. corn yield dropping 2.4 bushels per acre from July. The soybean yield estimate was projected drop to 44.6 bushels, down from 46 last month. The August report listed U.S. corn and soybean yields at 168.8 and 46.9 bushels per acre respectively.
Soybean ending stocks for the 2015/16 marketing year increased from 425 million bushels last month to a projected 470 million bushels. Corn ending stocks increased from about 1.6 billion bushels to more than 1.7 billion—well above the pre-report guess of 1.427.
“After the release of these numbers, both markets sold off dramatically with soybeans nearly trading limit down,” he said. “Corn prices held up better but still finished the day lower.”
Stiles said wheat report numbers were actually close to pre-report expectations, but price direction followed that of corn and soybeans.